Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
